Holiday Shopping 2026 · August 2026 to January 2027
The Toys shelf
What ChatGPT and Google AI Mode recommend when a CA shopper asks them about toys — ranked by how often each brand made the shelf.
Shopper Journeys
How the toys shelf shifts as a shopper moves from “what's out there” to “which one do I buy”, for everyone or for one shopper.
The Hot-Toy Grandparent's shelf. Each stage's bar is shelf-share within that stage.
Shelf-share = the share of shopper attention a brand holds. Visibility = the share of answers that named it at all.
How to read this table
Shelf-share weights every mention by where the brand sits in the answer, so the shelf adds up to 100%. Named first on a short shelf is worth far more than named fourth on a long one.
Visibility ignores position — simply how often a brand is named. Divide shelf-share by visibility and you get how much of the shelf a brand takes when it does appear.
No brand named is the share of answers that recommended no identifiable brand at all — advice, or retailers only.
Movement shows only where a week-over-week change is larger than the variation between readings. Most weeks, most brands are steady.
Products the engines name
The specific SKUs surfaced inside toys answers.
How to read this table
Price is a band, not one number: the cheapest price on the market, the brand’s own price in bold, and the dearest — sorted low to high. Where only one figure is known, only one is shown. A dash means no price we could verify, not a free product.
How we measure
We ask the assistants the same real shopper questions each run, and record every brand each one recommends.
What that means in practice
Each run we ask ChatGPT and Google AI Mode the same set of questions, one persona and market at a time.
Shelf-share is the share of answers in a category that named a brand. The questions never name a brand, so a brand is on the shelf because the engine chose it.
We settle on the questions before each run, never after. A brand on the shelf is the assistant’s pick, not one we went looking for.
Read the full method — the shoppers, their journey, and the season →
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